Aug. 22nd, 2004
Prediction: Bush loses
Aug. 22nd, 2004 05:40 pmBush is going to lose in November. This right here is the moment when I realized it:
In the warped dialectic of American politics, the Democrats are seen as the compassionate “mommy” party, with the Republicans as the tough “daddy”. His tough-talking cowboy act, at a time when many Americans feel threatened and insecure, combined with a foreign policy that distracts Americans from local threats (unemployment, health care expense, etc.) with faked-up external threats (Look! Saddam has weapon-of-mass-destruction-related program activity coloring books!) is the only thing Bush has going for him, the only reasons he’s as popular as he is, and even then he’s either tied with or trailing slightly behind Kerry in the polls.
So if he’s going to tie on the apron and try to play mommy, well, that means the cowboy daddy strategy isn’t cutting it. And it’s the only strategy he’s got, the only egg in his basket. He’s spent three years playing at being a tough guy. No way he can pull off a return to the “compassionate conservatism” act. So, unless Kerry dies in a plane crash or Rove pulls a miracle out of his ass this October, get ready for four years of right-wingers looking for an excuse to impeach Kerry.
And after months in which Mr. Bush stressed issues of concern to conservative supporters — from restrictions on stem cell research to a constitutional amendment to bar gay marriage — the convention will offer its national television audience a decidedly more moderate face for the president and his party. If "strength" was the leitmotif of the Democratic convention in Boston, "compassion" will be the theme in New York, marking the return of a mainstay of Mr. Bush's 2000 campaign, party leaders said.
In the warped dialectic of American politics, the Democrats are seen as the compassionate “mommy” party, with the Republicans as the tough “daddy”. His tough-talking cowboy act, at a time when many Americans feel threatened and insecure, combined with a foreign policy that distracts Americans from local threats (unemployment, health care expense, etc.) with faked-up external threats (Look! Saddam has weapon-of-mass-destruction-related program activity coloring books!) is the only thing Bush has going for him, the only reasons he’s as popular as he is, and even then he’s either tied with or trailing slightly behind Kerry in the polls.
So if he’s going to tie on the apron and try to play mommy, well, that means the cowboy daddy strategy isn’t cutting it. And it’s the only strategy he’s got, the only egg in his basket. He’s spent three years playing at being a tough guy. No way he can pull off a return to the “compassionate conservatism” act. So, unless Kerry dies in a plane crash or Rove pulls a miracle out of his ass this October, get ready for four years of right-wingers looking for an excuse to impeach Kerry.