Crystal ball gazing

[avram]

Kerry victory, upside:

• The most incompetent presidential administration in recent history will be out of office.
• The budget will start getting back on track, or at least stop hemorrhaging quite so quickly, at least if Congress cooperates.
• We’ll have a president with actual working experience in fighting amorphous international terrorist networks.
• We’ll have a president who isn’t a coward, and how actually cares about the soldiers under his command.
• Kerry’ll probably release the Reagan-era papers that Dubya’s been sitting on.

Kerry victory, downside:

• Most of his first four years will be devoted to undoing the damage caused by Bush. We’re not going to get a return to late-’90s economic strength, and if the GOP keeps Congress, they might not even let him fix things. That means Kerry’ll get the blame for every rotten egg Bush laid that breaks open and stinks up the joint over the next four years, and is unlikely to get a second term.
• Iraq will be a disaster.
• Civil liberties in the US are not likely to get any less abused. Kerry used to be a prosecuting attorney, and prosecutors aren’t generally disposed to look favorably on civil liberties.

Bush victory, upside:

• If the GOP keeps both houses and Congress as well as the White House, they’ll have nobody else to blame as things continue to get worse and worse. This could lead to the destruction of the Republican party, or at least a revolt as the decent moderate Republicans try to seize control back from the right-wing lunatics.

Bush victory, downside:

• Iraq will be a disaster.
• If the GOP keeps both houses and Congress as well as the White House, things will continue to get worse and worse.
• Oh, wait, they still can blame the media.
• And liberals.
• The traditional recipe for German-style fascism goes:
  • Take a powerful country.
  • Subject it to economic collapse.
  • Have it lose a major war.
  • Give it a leader who appeals to a desire for national greatness, but asks people to invest their desire for leadership in him as a person, rather than in the institutions of the nation.
  • In fact, have him disdain those institutions.
  • And have him blame all the nation’s problems on a wealthy, educated, cosmopolitan elite who caused the nation to lose that major war by doubting its own ability to win.
  Sound familiar?

Comments

[autopope.livejournal.com]

You missed a couple more downsides to a Bush victory, viz:

If Bush wins, he gets to appoint at least one Supreme Court judge -- more likely he gets to appoint four, and Scalia ends up looking like a moderate. That "Dred Scott" quip during the presidential debate is code directed at his base for "I will not appoint judges who support Roe v. Wade", so you can expect RvW to be overturned promptly.

Forget gay marriage -- the whole question of civil rights for homosexuals is up for grabs, as a Bush-appointed supreme court won't be likely to think much of earlier judgements overturning anti-sodomy laws.

Is there a draft in the house? (You bet!)

Given the traditional German recipe, to keep the whole thing rolling for more than a year or so Bush is going to need to go after a new target -- my money's on Iran, unless they can pop off a nuke beforehand. Failing that (rolls dice) ... how about Cuba?

[stormsweeper.livejournal.com]

Kerry victory, downside: Iraq will be a disaster

It's already a disaster. You think Kerry will make it worse?

[avram]

Whoops, I forgot to add “Iraq will be a disaster” to the Bush Downside section.

I think Iraq will be a disaster no matter what.