Nine years to the Singularity
Mar. 20th, 2006 11:05 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
avram
Someone at The Economist with a bit of extra time on his hands was looking at the recent proliferation of many-bladed razors, and noticed that the time gap between blade increments seems to be shrinking: 70 years before someone added the second blade, a couple of decades to the third, only two or three years between the four-bladed Schick Quattro and the five-bladed Gillette Fusion. Might there be a Moore’s Law for razors blades? Hence the chart over there. Now, that power-law curve predicts 14-bladed razors by the year 2100, but that’s not the interesting curve. The interesting curve is the hyperbolic one, for two reasons: One, it matches the real-world data. And two, it goes to infinity in 2015. And how are you going to get an asymptotically-accelerating number of blades onto a razor? Why, you’d need godlike super-technology to do that.
Right. There it is, proof of the approaching Vingean Singularity, sooner than anyone expected it, clear as the chin on your face.
(Update!)
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(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 04:14 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 09:12 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 10:10 am (UTC)Occam's Razor?
Date: 2006-03-21 02:38 pm (UTC)another factor
Date: 2006-03-21 03:08 pm (UTC)S curve
Date: 2006-03-21 06:18 pm (UTC)1) They hit physical limits that make it cost-prohibitive or just plain impossible to increase the number of blades. Maybe the blades would have to be so thin at some point that they could not be made strong enough?
2) Shaves get "good enough" that consumers don't see the advantage in paying for the next big upgrade.
I'm thinking that (2) would pretty much kill the exponential growth for good when it happens. However, the physical limits that cause S-curves are often overcome by jumping substrates. As an example, in the computer industry we went from vacuum tubes to transistors, etc.
(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 06:52 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 06:53 pm (UTC)(And actually a pretty good criticism for all those "these charts prove the Singularity's coming soon"-arguments.)
fusion web site
Date: 2006-03-21 09:09 pm (UTC)http://www.gillettefusion.com/us/
Re: Occam's Razor?
Date: 2006-03-21 09:13 pm (UTC)Re: another factor
Date: 2006-03-21 10:28 pm (UTC)God help you if your face gets chubby, though.
Re: S curve
Date: 2006-03-21 10:29 pm (UTC)Pssh. That's for Marketing to wrestle with. Their whole job is convincing people to buy things they don't need. How many people right now could tell the difference between a 3-blade shave and a 4 blade shave? I bet darn few. And those few are probably just bullshitting.
The 2015 Singularity
Date: 2006-03-21 11:17 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 11:24 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-22 01:48 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-22 02:28 am (UTC)Nine Years to Singularity
Date: 2006-03-22 11:45 am (UTC)Minds think
Date: 2006-03-22 09:27 pm (UTC)In any event, he said, "When are they going to six?," and I immediately spouted back, "Why stop there?...'Announcing, the InfiniBlade!,'---but they'd need nanotechnology to make it."
The cool thing is, it should act as a diffraction grating, so the Skittles slogan can be recycled into "Shave the Rainbow."
(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-23 07:49 pm (UTC)tmqb called it
Date: 2006-03-24 07:17 pm (UTC)(near the bottom)
tuesday morning quarterback writes a column. he used to call "gillette stadium" in foxboro, massachusetts "next-one-will-have-five-blades field".
from his feb 7, 2006 column:
Patriots Announce Stadium to be Renamed: Next One Will Have 11 Trans-Dimensional Nanoprobe-Embedded Force-Field-Projecting Blades Field: Reader Josh Byrne of Philadelphia relates the news that Gillette's six-blade razor has already been trumped -- Hitachi just released a 10-bladed razor, which "plays at invariable speed, ensuring the overall effectiveness." As noted last week, TMQ's Law of Razors holds that each century will see a razor with blades equal to the factorial of the highest number of blades on a razor of the previous century. This means that in the 22nd century, someone will market razor with 3,628,800 blades (10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1).
Next thing you know....
Date: 2006-03-27 10:50 am (UTC)infinity
Date: 2006-03-27 10:55 am (UTC)Re: S curve
Date: 2006-03-27 04:28 pm (UTC)The double-edged, single-bladed safety razors introduced in 1903 had nearly sixty years to evolve before the introduction of the cartridge razor. And they remain the ideal tool for shaving. Yes, you can cut yourself with them: on the other hand, if you're not an idiot and know how to use one, you get the best shave possible with the current technology.
Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
Date: 2006-03-27 09:30 pm (UTC)Mass Shaving Razors?
Date: 2006-03-28 06:41 am (UTC)Imagine armies of razor-bots attempting to get a close shave on everyone. It's the end of the world!
I would also take a look at the number of hamburgers, just heard someone released a commercial three-heights. Nano-hamburgers could mean the end for a lot of people.
(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-29 09:01 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-04-27 03:12 am (UTC)cool
Date: 2006-04-28 01:22 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-04-29 03:01 pm (UTC)Re: Minds think
Date: 2006-05-14 04:52 pm (UTC)Re: S curve
Date: 2006-06-18 06:05 pm (UTC)Oh that's easy - simply count the number of equidistant red parallel lines on the person's face ;)
(arrived here via Majikthise via Pharyngula). I'd actually been meaning to do a post myself about the razor thing since I saw it in a presentation by Doug Hoftstadter discussing the `Singularity'.
Re: Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
Date: 2006-06-20 10:34 pm (UTC)Gee, didn't Norelco give us this already?
Date: 2006-06-28 04:39 pm (UTC)The Schick Infini-T
Date: 2006-07-12 01:34 am (UTC)Personally, I'm holding out for the Wearable Norelco.
Re: Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
Date: 2006-07-12 04:09 am (UTC)Re: cool
Date: 2006-07-12 04:11 am (UTC)The Quintippio Megashave
Date: 2006-07-12 05:42 pm (UTC)Re: The Quintippio Megashave
Date: 2006-07-14 05:28 pm (UTC)The Infini-T has infinite blades, or your money back.
You'll note the year of its release at the bottom.
By that time, of course, all appliances are wireless.
Re: S curve
Date: 2006-09-02 06:55 am (UTC)Re: Occam's Razor?
Date: 2006-09-05 03:32 am (UTC)We've been here before
Date: 2007-01-21 04:53 pm (UTC)Maybe a single blade with rotating nano size cutters.
Re: Occam's Razor?
Date: 2007-05-06 02:52 am (UTC)Re: The Quintippio Megashave
Date: 2007-09-02 07:55 pm (UTC)Here's the current location of that image...
Re: another factor
Date: 2008-03-14 09:55 pm (UTC)Re: We've been here before
Date: 2009-07-03 06:41 am (UTC)1000 bit would be ~10^300 discrete levels: we don't have the technology to do that.
1-bit DACs work by using a higher frequency (like 2Mhz instead of 44.1kHz), then using some kind of Digital signal processing to make the two discrete voltage levels sound good in the audible frequency range (20Hz-22KHz).
As some people hinted at, electric razors already have hundreds of "blades" (If you count all the holes on the screens).
(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-07 04:02 pm (UTC)I love bearded men :p
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Date: 2011-07-08 07:06 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2012-01-26 02:19 pm (UTC)(no subject)
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