Nine years to the Singularity
Mar. 20th, 2006 11:05 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
avram
Someone at The Economist with a bit of extra time on his hands was looking at the recent proliferation of many-bladed razors, and noticed that the time gap between blade increments seems to be shrinking: 70 years before someone added the second blade, a couple of decades to the third, only two or three years between the four-bladed Schick Quattro and the five-bladed Gillette Fusion. Might there be a Moore’s Law for razors blades? Hence the chart over there. Now, that power-law curve predicts 14-bladed razors by the year 2100, but that’s not the interesting curve. The interesting curve is the hyperbolic one, for two reasons: One, it matches the real-world data. And two, it goes to infinity in 2015. And how are you going to get an asymptotically-accelerating number of blades onto a razor? Why, you’d need godlike super-technology to do that.
Right. There it is, proof of the approaching Vingean Singularity, sooner than anyone expected it, clear as the chin on your face.
(Update!)
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(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 04:14 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 09:12 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 10:10 am (UTC)(no subject)
From:Occam's Razor?
Date: 2006-03-21 02:38 pm (UTC)Re: Occam's Razor?
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2006-03-21 09:13 pm (UTC) - ExpandRe: Occam's Razor?
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2006-09-05 03:32 am (UTC) - ExpandRe: Occam's Razor?
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2007-05-06 02:52 am (UTC) - Expandanother factor
Date: 2006-03-21 03:08 pm (UTC)Re: another factor
From:Re: another factor
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2008-03-14 09:55 pm (UTC) - ExpandS curve
Date: 2006-03-21 06:18 pm (UTC)1) They hit physical limits that make it cost-prohibitive or just plain impossible to increase the number of blades. Maybe the blades would have to be so thin at some point that they could not be made strong enough?
2) Shaves get "good enough" that consumers don't see the advantage in paying for the next big upgrade.
I'm thinking that (2) would pretty much kill the exponential growth for good when it happens. However, the physical limits that cause S-curves are often overcome by jumping substrates. As an example, in the computer industry we went from vacuum tubes to transistors, etc.
Re: S curve
From:Re: S curve
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2006-03-27 04:28 pm (UTC) - ExpandRe: S curve
From:Re: S curve
From:(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 06:52 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 06:53 pm (UTC)(And actually a pretty good criticism for all those "these charts prove the Singularity's coming soon"-arguments.)
fusion web site
Date: 2006-03-21 09:09 pm (UTC)http://www.gillettefusion.com/us/
The 2015 Singularity
Date: 2006-03-21 11:17 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-21 11:24 pm (UTC)(no subject)
From:(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-22 02:28 am (UTC)Nine Years to Singularity
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2006-03-22 11:45 am (UTC) - ExpandMinds think
Date: 2006-03-22 09:27 pm (UTC)In any event, he said, "When are they going to six?," and I immediately spouted back, "Why stop there?...'Announcing, the InfiniBlade!,'---but they'd need nanotechnology to make it."
The cool thing is, it should act as a diffraction grating, so the Skittles slogan can be recycled into "Shave the Rainbow."
Re: Minds think
From:(no subject)
Date: 2006-03-23 07:49 pm (UTC)tmqb called it
Date: 2006-03-24 07:17 pm (UTC)(near the bottom)
tuesday morning quarterback writes a column. he used to call "gillette stadium" in foxboro, massachusetts "next-one-will-have-five-blades field".
from his feb 7, 2006 column:
Patriots Announce Stadium to be Renamed: Next One Will Have 11 Trans-Dimensional Nanoprobe-Embedded Force-Field-Projecting Blades Field: Reader Josh Byrne of Philadelphia relates the news that Gillette's six-blade razor has already been trumped -- Hitachi just released a 10-bladed razor, which "plays at invariable speed, ensuring the overall effectiveness." As noted last week, TMQ's Law of Razors holds that each century will see a razor with blades equal to the factorial of the highest number of blades on a razor of the previous century. This means that in the 22nd century, someone will market razor with 3,628,800 blades (10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1).
Next thing you know....
Date: 2006-03-27 10:50 am (UTC)infinity
Date: 2006-03-27 10:55 am (UTC)Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2006-03-27 09:30 pm (UTC) - ExpandRe: Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
From:Re: Nanorazor Face Beaver Droid Army
From:Mass Shaving Razors?
Date: 2006-03-28 06:41 am (UTC)Imagine armies of razor-bots attempting to get a close shave on everyone. It's the end of the world!
I would also take a look at the number of hamburgers, just heard someone released a commercial three-heights. Nano-hamburgers could mean the end for a lot of people.
(no subject)
Date: 2006-04-27 03:12 am (UTC)cool
Date: 2006-04-28 01:22 am (UTC)Re: cool
From:(no subject)
Date: 2006-04-29 03:01 pm (UTC)Gee, didn't Norelco give us this already?
Date: 2006-06-28 04:39 pm (UTC)The Schick Infini-T
Date: 2006-07-12 01:34 am (UTC)Personally, I'm holding out for the Wearable Norelco.
The Quintippio Megashave
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2006-07-12 05:42 pm (UTC) - ExpandRe: The Quintippio Megashave
From:Re: The Quintippio Megashave
From:We've been here before
Date: 2007-01-21 04:53 pm (UTC)Maybe a single blade with rotating nano size cutters.
Re: We've been here before
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2009-07-03 06:41 am (UTC) - Expand(no subject)
Date: 2010-05-07 04:02 pm (UTC)I love bearded men :p
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